Deadline Day

Today is the non-waiver trade deadline in MLB, and the Phillies are a mess. Their offense is almost non-existent, their bullpen is atrocious, and they are hampered by players with declining production and huge, untradeable contracts. Does this mean the Phillies are finished, that their fabled "window" of opportunity has slammed shut, dooming them to years of mediocrity at best?  Not necessarily. Two year ago, the Red Sox were in the same position, and now they are once again leading the American League East.  It took some creativity, but it can be done. The Phillies , like the Red Sox, are a large market team, with resources. It will take an overhaul, but, with some shrewd moves, keeping the right players, integrating the right rookies with their youthful enthusiasm into the lineup, and perhaps getting lucky and finding a trade partner to take some of the bad contracts (as the Red Sox did with the Dodgers), plus free agent signings and a change in their international signing policy (as recently exhibited with their lavish signing of Cuban defector Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez), the Phillies may turn it around quickly, perhaps as soon as next year.  What happens today may be the start of this retooling.

Who from the “Pig Pen” will make It?

For the past month the Phillies have been holding an open audition in their bullpen, running one arm after the other from their Triple A Farm team, the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs.  The jobs are there for the taking, someone from the “Pig Pen” will step up and claim them.   The Phillies bullpen, expected to be a strength this year, with Papelbon anchoring in the closer role, big money free agent Mike Adams signed to lock down the eighth inning, and sage veteran and World Series component Chad Durbin returning to the fold to join holdover lefthanded specialists Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst, there were expected to be just a few spots for the young arms being groomed in the minor leagues. 

Well,” the best laid plans…” as they say.  Durbin was frankly awful, and has since been released. Horst wasn’t much better and is currently injured, Adams never really was effective and is likely gone for the year, and the original best minor league arm belonging to Phillipe Aumont  was wild and ineffective. Since then, we’ve seen Aumont sent down, and Justin Defratus, B.J. Rosenberg, Jake Diekman,  Joe Savery and in the most recent surprise, J.C Ramirez be given opportunities to varying degrees of effectiveness.  Rosenberg was sent back, Savery has been up and down three times, and Aumont has returned (meaning two of the three players received from Seattle for Cliff Lee (Aumont and Ramirez) are currently in the big leagues).  The arms are strong, there will be growing pains, and not all will succeed, but it will be fascinating which of these young players becomes the real “piggy” and keeps a spot in the big leagues all for himself.

What should the Phillies do?

 

The season has gone pretty much as expected for  the Phillies, who entered the 2013 season with a lot of questions, questions that almost all needed to be answered in a positive manner for them to contend.

 

Yes, they needed to have everything go right, and, as expected, everything has not gone right. Still, no one has really pulled away , and if things go well from here on, they could still contend,  especially if Carlos Zambrano has something left in the tank. He's got to be better than Tyler Cloyd.

Should the Phillies blow up them team and start over? Okay...how?  Trade Cliff Lee (with apologies to Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettitbone, two things that have gone right) he has been their best pitcher. sure, if they were offered Giancarlo Stanton I'd do it, but Miami doesn't want an expensive player, so that won’t happen. Other than that or some similar outlandish offer, I’d keep him.

Trade Howard?  Not likely unless you pay almost all of his salary, and even then you still won't get anyone. Might as well keep him. Especially as he's a leader, good teammate, someone who can show the new young guys the way.

Trade Rollins?  I'd do it if the right offer came...and it may. They seem to have a capable replacement in Galvis, they can play Frandsen at second when Utley can't...intriguing, and worth exploring , wait for a contender who needs a shortstop and is willing to overpay. 

Trade Utley? There's the rub. He's the leader, the kind of player you wish everyone to emulate...but, he's older, brittle, and about to be a free agent.  You'd get something for him from a contender...but Ii think getting rid of iconic players who are the face of the team is a mistake, even though their production declines (Brian Dawkins anyone?) Keep him to show the new wave of Phillies how it should be done.

Trade Kendrick?   Maybe...his value is at an all-time high.  I've always been a supporter, thinking he was a valuable piece even as he was being pilloried by the fanbase, but I still think he's a fourth starter at best, and if you can get good value....I'd send him away, replace him with John Lannan when he comes back from injury ...and begin building for the future with new guys surrounding the old vets.

The Youngs? If you can get anything for either of them, do it and work their replacements in from the minors.  (Darren Ruf for Delmon, with Domonic Brown moving to rightfield, and Cody Asche at third for Michael). These guys might help contenders, especially as they are on one year deals so the buyer won't be stuck for long. 

Bottom line, I'd make some moves, and try to work more youth in around the core, so not a complete blow-up. The Yankees and Red Sox never seem to completely go with the youth movement, the try new pieces until they get it right and they always seem to be contending. The Phillies could do the same.

 

Kelly plays it Safe

In the recently concluded 2013 NFL draft, new Eagles coach, and heralded offensive genius, Chip Kelly, played it straight down the middle...making the safe pick in almost every instance. The old football adages, build from the lines out, and pick the best athlete available regardless of position, certainly seemed in evidence. Taking Lane Johnson, a big, athletic, if inexperienced offensive tackle with the 4th pick in the draft, certainly followed this adage. Johnson, if ready, gives them the opportunity to return Todd Herremans to guard, have two large, bookends at offensive tackle, and motivate disappointing 2011 first round pick Danny Watkins to put up or shutup. If he's not ready, they can leave Herremans at tackle, continue with Watkins at guard, and wait until Johnson develops. Either way, a smart move.  Second round pick, tight end Zack Ertz, while not a glaring need, has great potential in an offense that relies on match up problems created by tight ends. Third round pick Bennie Logan returns to the line, this time, the defensive line and appears to be a solid choice. Matt Barkley, who likely would have been a first round pick if he had entered the draft last year, has the potential to be an absolute steal in the fourth round, and may be the quarterback of the future. If not, he merely cost a fourth round pick. He will be given time to develop, and may blossom with solid coaching and without the pressure to perform immediately. Later picks were all solid, if not spectacular.  All in all, safe picks...and maybe, just maybe, exactly what the Eagles need to return to perennial playoff contention.

Opening Day Roster Set

The Phillies have released their opening day roster, and it contains few surprises. Once Darren Ruf showed his outfield defense was not ready for prime time, there really weren't many remaining position battles. Would Ender Inciarte, the rule 5 draftee who would have to be offered back to the Diamondbacks if he didn't remain on the roster claim the last outfield spot (at least until Delmon Young is ready to play), he did. Would Humberto Quintero or Steven Lerud be the backup to starting cather Eric Kratz until Carlos Ruis completes his 25 game suspension?  It turned out to be the MLB veteran Quintero, a career backup known for his defense rather than the younger Lerud, a career minor league backup, also known for his defense.  Who would claim the last two spots in teh bullpen from the remaining contenders of Phillippe Aumont, Raul Valdes and Michael Stutes?  The answers: Aumont and Valdes.

The lack of intrigue is a good thing, because it means there are less questions on teh remainder of teh roster. The aging core, Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Michael Young have all been healthy and productive. Ben Revere looks like the real deal in center. Domonic Brown answered one of the major questions by seizing a corner outfield spot, showing all spring that he may have unlocked his tremendous potential.

The season is set to start, and the Phillies roster is pretty much what was expected. And that's a very good thing.

Phils First Full Squad Workout--If Wishes were Fishes...

Today is the first full squad workout for the Phillies, and so far, as is true everywhere, hope springs eternal. If everything breaks correctly, if Howard, Utley, and Halladay are healthy and their usual selves, Papelbon, Hamels, and Lee continue to perform at their historical levels, if Micahel Young can playe as he did in 2011, if Kendrick can continue to pitch as he did in his strong second half last year, if John Lannan can pitch as well as he did against everyone but the Phillies, if Mike Adams is healty and maintains his form, if some of the young players such as Dominic Brown and Darren Ruf step up, if Carlos Ruiz comes back as strong as last year after his 25 game suspension, if Ben Revere can catch everything in center field....if, if, if.

Probably to many ifs for the Phils to seriously contend, still if any team can, its this one. We can only hope.

Phillies Offseason Review on the Eve of Spring Training

Spring training is less than two weeks away, and the Phillies have all but completed their offseason moves (some minor league roster tweaking not withstanding), and to all accounts they have finished with the third in the NLEast offseason, just as they finished third in the NL east standings. Both the Nationals and Braves made bigger splashes, the Nationals acquiring centerfielder Denard Span from the Twins (while the Phillies acquired his backup from the Twins)  and signing former Yankees closer Rafael Soriano (giving them three closer quality relievers in Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Soriano. The Braves acquired both B.J and Justin Upton and the Phillies acquired Delmon Young. True, the Phillies did sign the best eight inning reliever on all of baseball over the past five years in Mike Adams, a useful bullpen component in Chad Durbin, and a former batting champ at third in Michael Young. Still, on paper, things look bleak. No addition to their roster is likely to bolster the Phillies on base percentage, all the additions are free swingers, meaning the Phillies will likely continue their trend of scoring 10 runs one game, then 1 or less the next two.

What they did maintain is payroll flexibility, if things break correctly, they should have the cash available to make a difference making acquisition at the trade deadline, and if things go poorly, they won’t be stuck with long term contracts for unproductive players.  So they Phillies season breaks down to what it always has, the health and performance of their aging superstars: Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, along with in their prime stars Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. These guys must remain healthy and perform as a semblance of their normal selves for the Phillies will contend.  If not, the Phillies can begin to shed these movable contracts to build for the future.