Should the Phillies be buyers or sellers?

The MLB trading deadline is less than one month away. Should the Phillies be looking to add talent (and payroll) to keep their 5 year playoff streak going, or should they write this year off as a lost cause and trade talent with an eye toward building for the future?  It’s not an easy question, and as usual, is predicated on your ability to predict future performance, an inexact science at best. The Phillies have been lucky in recent years as deadline acquisitions Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter pence have contributed mightily to their success.  The Phillies have been buyers, dealing prospects for help at the major league level.   If they reverse the trend, selling major league talent to rebuild their depleted minor leagues, they will essentially be giving up on this year in the hopes of starting a new run in the years to come. They could trade impending free agents Shane Victorino,  Juan Pierre, even Cole Hamels for prospects, (although as rental players they won’t bring in the haul they normally would), or perhaps Hunter pence, who will not be a free agent, in the hopes of bringing a larger return. 

Many people think this is precisely what they will do.  However,  a trade deadline selloff is not what Roy Halladay and Cliff lee signed here for, nor will it hlp entice future free agents. Additionally, prospects are iffy at best.  Of all the minor league players the Phillies traded to acquire the players identified above, only one,  Cleveland backup catcher Lou Marson, is currently in the majors.  To be sure, others are still considered good prospects (Travis D’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton), but others stock has fallen considerably (Jason Donald, Michael Taylor), so you never know.  Finally, the Phillies are expected to make three additions before the deadline that will be better than anyone any other team will be able to acquire, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy Halladay all should return, and if healthy, these stars should push them into playoff contention.  It’s not yet time to sell, the Phillies window remains open, and perhaps with some acquisitions to help the bullpen, they can return to the top of the division they have owned for the last 5 years.

The Time is right, for Price

Twin Valley baseball player Jared Price must be sitting on pins and needles.  Tonight is the first round of the amateur baseball draft, and Price, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to go anywhere between the late first round and the 10^th round.  Already having accepted a full scholarship to the University of Maryland, Price is in the catbird seat. If he is not drafted in a round he likes, or by a team he favors, or if he is not offered a large enough signing bonus, he can merely head of to Maryland, receive high level college coaching, compete in the ultra-competitive ACC, and get drafted again, hopefully at a higher level than this year. Alternately, if he is drafted and offered a big enough bonus (something in excess of $1 million) he can accept the money, forgo college, and begin pursuing his lifelong dream of playing in the major leagues.  Jared has achieved this enviable position through hard work and dogged determination to achieve his goal. However it turns out, Jared has earned his opportunity, and we in raider nation wish him the best of luck.

Mayberry R.F.P. (Request for Playing Time)

The Phillies offense has struggled mightily so far this year, despite the veritable explosion of runs (20 in the last three games of the season long 10 game road trip). When the Phillies do hit, singles are the norm, with very few extra base hits.  Of the current starters, Hunter Pence I really the only true power threat (Rollins and Victorino have occasional pop, and Laynce Nix can hit right-handers).  John Mayberry has certainly struggled with the rest of them, looking absolutely lost at the plate, while his replacement in left, Juan Pierre has consistently gotten on base, leaving Mayberry glued to the bench.  While Pierre has been on base (.339 BA, .361 On-base %), no one has driven him in with any consistency. (he’s only crossed the plate 6 times), and his arm in left is so week I think I could take second on him.  Mayberry has huge power potential, last year he slugged 15 home runs in only 267 at bats, less than half a full season’s worth, he is a plus defender at all three outfield positions (and first base as well), and can run. He was not the only player on the Phillies who struggled at the plate,  Placido Polanco had a similar terrible start, but was allowed to play through it and has started to come around. Mayberry deserves a similar chance, and more importantly, the Phillies themselves need to give him a similar chance. They need at least one more player in the lineup with 30+ homer potential, someone to drive in all the singles hitters that pepper their lineup, and someone who can provide defensive support to their stellar pitching staff.  Mayberry need a real chance to pull it together, the Phillies season may just ride on his ability to do so.

Time to Panic? Not Yet

After 8 games, the Phillies offense has been struggling to score runs, to say the least! Are the injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley too much to overcome? Will the offense continue to scuffle? The replacement in the lineup haven't done much, though slick fielding second baseman Freddy Galvis has started to hit a little after beginning his big league career with an 0-12 collar. Still, his production is nothing like Utley in his prime, nor even th Utley of last year, nor can we expect it to ever approach the Hall of Fame type numbers Chase produced before injuries derailed his election to those hallowed halls. Expecting Chase to return and be Chase is likely a pipe dream as well. Howard, on the other hand, should come back and be a reasonable facsimile of the run producing machine he always has been, if not this year, then certainly by next year. The combination of his temporary replacements, Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix, Jim Thome, and John Mayberry Junior should be able to approach the 31 homeruns and 109 RBI's Howard produced last year. If Mayberry can begin to harness the talent his physical gifts imply (He began to show signs of this last year), he might be able to give them production similar to what Jayson Werth produced while here in Philly, production that netted him a $126 million free agent contract from the Washington Nationals.

The Phillies pitching continues to be excellent, the offense should improve to a level that will allow the Phillies to generate enough runs to support that pitching, and the team still has the pedigree the win the NL East. The low run totals are likely just a function of slow starts and offensive funks that afflict every baseball team throughout the season. That's why they play 162, giving plenty of team for the cream to rise to the top.

Has the Window Closed?

Opening day is fast approaching and the aging Phillies are springing so many leaks a submarine with a screen door may stay afloat longer.  Has the window of opportunity for this talented team slammed shut? Injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have ripped the heart out of the Phillies offense. Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco have been injury prone in recent seasons and haven't been able to play a full slate of games, chances are being another year older is going to do nothing to reverse this trend. Carlos Ruiz is well past thirty as well, an age when catchers begin to break down due to the physical demands of their position. The outfield is the only component of the Phils offense that remains relatively young and productive. This will have to be the engine that drives the Phils offense.

The pitching staff remains the strength of the team, and hopefully will remain so dominant that the potentially anemic Phils offense will be sufficient to carry the team until, and if, Howard and Utley return, or GM Ruben Amaro is forced to trade for some more offense.  Only time will tell, but that's why we watch. Let the games begin!

Happy P & C Day!

It’s finally here, the day I’ve been waiting for since October, My favorite day of the year, P & C day! P & C day, or the day that Pitchers and Catchers report to spring training is  a holiday in my household.  Even though nothing much actually happens, the players merely report to camp and perhaps have a couple of languid games of catch in the Florida and Arizona sunshine, it’s a sign that spring is in the air and my favorite sport will soon once again enter the daily fabric of my life. I love baseball for many reasons, the balance of strategic gamesmanship and planning, juxtaposed with bursts of athletic grace and energy. It is the athletic equivalent of chess, with moves set up innings, games, even months in advance.  Greg Maddux once declared that he purposely allowed a batter to get a hit in a game he believed he had well in hand, merely to set up a potential thought in a hitter’s mind as to what he would do later in the season when they matched up again, likely in a more important situation. It is this mix of the cerebral and athletic that I so love. There is always something to pick up, I catch something new in every game I play, watch, or coach. Baseball is a game where the more you know, the more you realize you don’t know, and today marks the kickoff of a fascinating 8 month journey culminating in the World Series.   

Peyton's Place: Indy or Elsewhere?

The Super Bowl week spat between Peyton Manning and Colts owner Robert Irsay has fostered much debate about what the Colts, owners of the first pick in the draft, should do. Should they release Peyton and save themselves $28 million, and draft Andrew Luck, considered the best QB prospect coming out of college since…Peyton Manning?  Should they keep Manning to mentor Luck and tie up much of their salary cap in one position?  I have heard scouts say that while Luck has great talent, he’s no Peyton Manning nor ever will be. They recommend trading the pick and keeping Manning (assuming he passes their physical). The real question is not whether Luck will be better than Manning ever was , now, or in 5 years. It is whether he will be better than Manning at that point in time. The answer is almost certainly yes, even if Luck turns out to be no better than Jim Sorgi (former Manning backup QB who virtually never saw the field in Manning’s heyday). Manning will almost certainly be gone in five years. The real question is whether Luck will be better than the players they would have drafted if they traded the pick.  Secondarily, will the Colts transform back into contenders next year if Manning is back near the top of his game?  Will the other players they may draft help them get there more than a bench riding Luck next year (almost to a certainty). It’s a tough call as to when to cut ties with an icon, and unless Manning  retires gracefully (something he’s given no indication of doing), there is no easy answer for the Colts.