Opening Day Roster Set

The Phillies have released their opening day roster, and it contains few surprises. Once Darren Ruf showed his outfield defense was not ready for prime time, there really weren't many remaining position battles. Would Ender Inciarte, the rule 5 draftee who would have to be offered back to the Diamondbacks if he didn't remain on the roster claim the last outfield spot (at least until Delmon Young is ready to play), he did. Would Humberto Quintero or Steven Lerud be the backup to starting cather Eric Kratz until Carlos Ruis completes his 25 game suspension?  It turned out to be the MLB veteran Quintero, a career backup known for his defense rather than the younger Lerud, a career minor league backup, also known for his defense.  Who would claim the last two spots in teh bullpen from the remaining contenders of Phillippe Aumont, Raul Valdes and Michael Stutes?  The answers: Aumont and Valdes.

The lack of intrigue is a good thing, because it means there are less questions on teh remainder of teh roster. The aging core, Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Michael Young have all been healthy and productive. Ben Revere looks like the real deal in center. Domonic Brown answered one of the major questions by seizing a corner outfield spot, showing all spring that he may have unlocked his tremendous potential.

The season is set to start, and the Phillies roster is pretty much what was expected. And that's a very good thing.

Phils First Full Squad Workout--If Wishes were Fishes...

Today is the first full squad workout for the Phillies, and so far, as is true everywhere, hope springs eternal. If everything breaks correctly, if Howard, Utley, and Halladay are healthy and their usual selves, Papelbon, Hamels, and Lee continue to perform at their historical levels, if Micahel Young can playe as he did in 2011, if Kendrick can continue to pitch as he did in his strong second half last year, if John Lannan can pitch as well as he did against everyone but the Phillies, if Mike Adams is healty and maintains his form, if some of the young players such as Dominic Brown and Darren Ruf step up, if Carlos Ruiz comes back as strong as last year after his 25 game suspension, if Ben Revere can catch everything in center field....if, if, if.

Probably to many ifs for the Phils to seriously contend, still if any team can, its this one. We can only hope.

Phillies Offseason Review on the Eve of Spring Training

Spring training is less than two weeks away, and the Phillies have all but completed their offseason moves (some minor league roster tweaking not withstanding), and to all accounts they have finished with the third in the NLEast offseason, just as they finished third in the NL east standings. Both the Nationals and Braves made bigger splashes, the Nationals acquiring centerfielder Denard Span from the Twins (while the Phillies acquired his backup from the Twins)  and signing former Yankees closer Rafael Soriano (giving them three closer quality relievers in Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Soriano. The Braves acquired both B.J and Justin Upton and the Phillies acquired Delmon Young. True, the Phillies did sign the best eight inning reliever on all of baseball over the past five years in Mike Adams, a useful bullpen component in Chad Durbin, and a former batting champ at third in Michael Young. Still, on paper, things look bleak. No addition to their roster is likely to bolster the Phillies on base percentage, all the additions are free swingers, meaning the Phillies will likely continue their trend of scoring 10 runs one game, then 1 or less the next two.

What they did maintain is payroll flexibility, if things break correctly, they should have the cash available to make a difference making acquisition at the trade deadline, and if things go poorly, they won’t be stuck with long term contracts for unproductive players.  So they Phillies season breaks down to what it always has, the health and performance of their aging superstars: Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, along with in their prime stars Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. These guys must remain healthy and perform as a semblance of their normal selves for the Phillies will contend.  If not, the Phillies can begin to shed these movable contracts to build for the future.

So long, Andy

As expected the Eagles have fired Andy Reid after an awful  4-12 season, marred by high priced free agents failing to live up to expectations , the firing of overmatched assistant coaches, and, most damaging of all, the team quitting on the coach. Yes, it was time for Reid to go, yet he was, and by a large margin, the best coach the Eagles have ever had. Their run of success, 9 playoff appearances in his first eleven years was unprecedented in the teams mostly sorry history. He had his weaknesses, certainly, most of them stemming from his strengths. He was a meticulous planner, he famously claimed the Eagles job as a dark horse candidate by displaying a thick binder detailing every facet of his plans for a team as head coach, and he firmly believed his plan was the correct, and only way. While this generally resulted in his teams being well prepared and ready to play, it became his downfall when things went awry. He couldn’t adjust midgame (as evidences by wasted timeouts, inability to switch to the run when teams took away his passing options, options he firmly believed were the best way to run an offense).  When his plan worked, the Eagles often appeared unstoppable( the 2000 season opening game against the Cowboys (the pickle juice game ) where the Eagles started with an onside kick and won going away 41-14, and the Monday night game against the Redskins where Michael Vick led the Eagles to  a 28-0 lead in the first quarter before winning 59-28 come to mind.  When it didn’t, well the last two seasons are full of examples of what could result. It always perplexed me that such a meticulous planer couldn’t see his own weakness, and hire a coach to help him make these adjustments in the heat of battle. Late defensive coordinator Jim Johnson excelled at in game adjustments on the defensive side, and this often helped the Eagles while he was here. The Eagles haven’t been the same since his passing.

I believe Reid will get his due as we look back on his tenure and the memory of his two most recent seasons fade, and I firmly believe some other team will quickly snap him up and benefit from his strengths.  Hopefully, the Eagles will strike gold again with their next coach, someone who can come in and build on the expectation of excellence that Reid engendered in a formerly forlorn franchise.

The Phillies Offseason Part 3: Pitching

Now that the Phillies have addressed some of their needs, a fine run and catch centerfielder in Ben Revere (his throwing arm, unfortunately is reminiscent of former Phillie Juan Pierre), and a stopgap third baseman, Michael Young, who should do fine filling in until young prospect Cody Asche is ready, especially if he is motivated to prove his final year in Texas an aberration, it is time to address the pitching staff. In reality, unless GM Ruben Amaro has a magic trick up his sleeve, the staff is virtually finalized. The biggest needs were a reliable eight inning setup man, and the Phillies signed the man who has been the best in the majors at that role for the past 6 years in Mike Adams. with Adams controlling the eighth inning and closer Jonathan Papelbon holding down the ninth, the remainder of the relief corps can be manned by young arms in the organization (of which there are plenty) and gain experience in less stressful situations. Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst are the front runners for the lefty specialist roles, with Jake Diekman (he of the outstanding stuff and questionable control) in the mix. From the right side, rocket armed B.J. Rosenberg, Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimmer, and 2011 sensation Michael Stutes should all compete for the remaining spots in the seven member relief corps.  September call up, soft-tossing Tyler Cloyd will compete for a spot in the rotation,  and failing to earn that, may be slotted into the long-man sixth starter slot ably manned by Kyle Kendrick in past years.

The rotation should be filled by returning aces Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay , who will comeback as an equally effective, if modified style pitcher (no one will work harder, and he has remade himself before), along with the aforementioned Kyle Kendrick, and recently signed former Washington Nationals lefthander John Lannan who will be highly motivated to prove the Nationals made a mistake in dropping him from their rotation last year.  Should any of these falter, the Phillies have Cloyd, Jonathan Petitbone, and Ethan Martin (acquired last year in the Shane Victorino trade) being groomed at Triple A Lehigh Valley. Pitching should once again be the strength of the 2013 Phillies.

 

Phillies Offseason Part 2: The Outfield

We are a few weeks into the free agency period, and the Phillies have yet to make a move despite glaring needs in the outfield and at third base.  Are they laying in the weeds looking to make a big splash, or are they waiting until players seeking outrageous contracts are more desperate when they are still unemployed just before spring training?  Not a peep has come from the front office.

          As I advocated in my previous post regarding the infield, I think patience will be a virtue. The biggest name on the free-agency market is Josh Hamilton, a player whose power would certainly aid the Phillies, fits manager Charlie Manual’s offensive style preference, and fills a hole in centerfield.  His price tag would be astronomical, however, and while a modern day murderer’s row of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Josh Hamilton would certainly be imposing, all three bat lefthanded and the lineup would certainly prove susceptible to the top lefty pitchers  in the league. Michael Bourn has also been bandied about, and the former Phillie would certainly provide top level defense, but no power, and for a speedy leadoff type, he has an even lower on-base percentage than current leadoff man Jimmy Rollins, and he too, bats lefthanded.  B.J. Upton has the potential to provide righthanded power, and stellar defense, but that word potential always seems to be associated with Upton, meaning he has yet to come close to living up to it. He will also be expensive, but, if he were to unlock that potential  here he could be exactly what the Phillies need.  Some cheaper alternatives have already signed elsewhere (some not so cheaply, such as Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera with Detroit and Toronto, respectively.)  That leaves us with old friend, Shane Victorino who pickd the worst year possible to have an off season, his free agency year.  Shane, traded to the Dodgers at the deadline last year, will almost certainly not be resigned by them as they have Carl Crawford slated to fill his leftfield slot.  Shane could be signed relatively cheaply, for less years than a Hamilton or Bourn, and give time for some of the Phillis minor league prospects (Michael Bourn, Leandro Castro) to develop. He provides solid defense, some pop from the right side (he is a switch hitter), and a strong clubhouse presence who connects with the Philly fan base. Plus, he will likely be motivated to prove last year was an aberration.

In right and left, I think the Phillies should allow minor league prospects Dominic Brown and Darren Ruf to win the job outright, with veterans Nate Schierholtz and Laynce Nix available to fill in. If the outfield remains a weakness, the Phillies should have the financial flexibility to make a trade deadline acquisition.

Phillies Offseason Part 1: The Infield

Now that he World Series has ended and Phillies fans were treated to the sight of Hunter Pence celebrating a World championship (I sight we surely would have rather witnessed last year), the question turns to what should the Phillies due to insure they are not on the outside looking in during next year’s playoffs?  This is a difficult question to answer. Today we will look at the infield, future posts will address the outfield and the pitching staff.

 Essentially, they are locked in on 4/5 of their infield (if you include  catcher), and none of their outfield. Utley and Howard, due their  injury history and the size of their contacts are untradeable, Ruiz was their MVP this year, both offensively and through his value to the pitching staff.  Rollins, despite a decline from his MVP years , is still one of the top shortstops in the majors. Realistically, who could the Phillies acquire that would be better?  (I’d love to  get Troy Tulowittzki from the Rockies, but I just don’t see it happening.) Third base is the obvious area for improvement where  Placido Polanco’s option will not be picked up and he will not be back. However, the best available free agent, Kevin Youkilis of the Chicago White Sox, is aging, injury prone, and has had declining production over the last several years.   Trade possibilities include Chase Headley of the Padres, a good to very good player, but one who will be expensive to acquire in a seller’s market and  Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals, an intriguing offensive talent who would provide questionable defense.  The team could make due with Kevin Frandsen, who performed well over the last two months, or Freddy Galvis who has displayed a superior glove (if little offense) at two different positions.  They have a solid prospect in the minors Cody Asche, who played well at Single A Clearwater and Double A Reading, but he is not quite ready for Prime Time.

It won’t make the splash that the Phillies typically have in the offseason while Ruben Amaro has been GM, but that course of action is exactly what I would recommend. Give Frandsen and Galvis the chance to prove their worth while developing Asche in the minors and don’t overspend on marginal upgrades in talent when potentially sound, and inexpensive alternatives exist within the organization. Keep the money in reserve so a big move can be made at the trade deadline when the teams needs are more sharply in focus. Third base may not be their biggest area of need.