The Phillies Offseason Part 3: Pitching

Now that the Phillies have addressed some of their needs, a fine run and catch centerfielder in Ben Revere (his throwing arm, unfortunately is reminiscent of former Phillie Juan Pierre), and a stopgap third baseman, Michael Young, who should do fine filling in until young prospect Cody Asche is ready, especially if he is motivated to prove his final year in Texas an aberration, it is time to address the pitching staff. In reality, unless GM Ruben Amaro has a magic trick up his sleeve, the staff is virtually finalized. The biggest needs were a reliable eight inning setup man, and the Phillies signed the man who has been the best in the majors at that role for the past 6 years in Mike Adams. with Adams controlling the eighth inning and closer Jonathan Papelbon holding down the ninth, the remainder of the relief corps can be manned by young arms in the organization (of which there are plenty) and gain experience in less stressful situations. Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst are the front runners for the lefty specialist roles, with Jake Diekman (he of the outstanding stuff and questionable control) in the mix. From the right side, rocket armed B.J. Rosenberg, Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimmer, and 2011 sensation Michael Stutes should all compete for the remaining spots in the seven member relief corps.  September call up, soft-tossing Tyler Cloyd will compete for a spot in the rotation,  and failing to earn that, may be slotted into the long-man sixth starter slot ably manned by Kyle Kendrick in past years.

The rotation should be filled by returning aces Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay , who will comeback as an equally effective, if modified style pitcher (no one will work harder, and he has remade himself before), along with the aforementioned Kyle Kendrick, and recently signed former Washington Nationals lefthander John Lannan who will be highly motivated to prove the Nationals made a mistake in dropping him from their rotation last year.  Should any of these falter, the Phillies have Cloyd, Jonathan Petitbone, and Ethan Martin (acquired last year in the Shane Victorino trade) being groomed at Triple A Lehigh Valley. Pitching should once again be the strength of the 2013 Phillies.

 

Phillies Offseason Part 2: The Outfield

We are a few weeks into the free agency period, and the Phillies have yet to make a move despite glaring needs in the outfield and at third base.  Are they laying in the weeds looking to make a big splash, or are they waiting until players seeking outrageous contracts are more desperate when they are still unemployed just before spring training?  Not a peep has come from the front office.

          As I advocated in my previous post regarding the infield, I think patience will be a virtue. The biggest name on the free-agency market is Josh Hamilton, a player whose power would certainly aid the Phillies, fits manager Charlie Manual’s offensive style preference, and fills a hole in centerfield.  His price tag would be astronomical, however, and while a modern day murderer’s row of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Josh Hamilton would certainly be imposing, all three bat lefthanded and the lineup would certainly prove susceptible to the top lefty pitchers  in the league. Michael Bourn has also been bandied about, and the former Phillie would certainly provide top level defense, but no power, and for a speedy leadoff type, he has an even lower on-base percentage than current leadoff man Jimmy Rollins, and he too, bats lefthanded.  B.J. Upton has the potential to provide righthanded power, and stellar defense, but that word potential always seems to be associated with Upton, meaning he has yet to come close to living up to it. He will also be expensive, but, if he were to unlock that potential  here he could be exactly what the Phillies need.  Some cheaper alternatives have already signed elsewhere (some not so cheaply, such as Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera with Detroit and Toronto, respectively.)  That leaves us with old friend, Shane Victorino who pickd the worst year possible to have an off season, his free agency year.  Shane, traded to the Dodgers at the deadline last year, will almost certainly not be resigned by them as they have Carl Crawford slated to fill his leftfield slot.  Shane could be signed relatively cheaply, for less years than a Hamilton or Bourn, and give time for some of the Phillis minor league prospects (Michael Bourn, Leandro Castro) to develop. He provides solid defense, some pop from the right side (he is a switch hitter), and a strong clubhouse presence who connects with the Philly fan base. Plus, he will likely be motivated to prove last year was an aberration.

In right and left, I think the Phillies should allow minor league prospects Dominic Brown and Darren Ruf to win the job outright, with veterans Nate Schierholtz and Laynce Nix available to fill in. If the outfield remains a weakness, the Phillies should have the financial flexibility to make a trade deadline acquisition.

Phillies Offseason Part 1: The Infield

Now that he World Series has ended and Phillies fans were treated to the sight of Hunter Pence celebrating a World championship (I sight we surely would have rather witnessed last year), the question turns to what should the Phillies due to insure they are not on the outside looking in during next year’s playoffs?  This is a difficult question to answer. Today we will look at the infield, future posts will address the outfield and the pitching staff.

 Essentially, they are locked in on 4/5 of their infield (if you include  catcher), and none of their outfield. Utley and Howard, due their  injury history and the size of their contacts are untradeable, Ruiz was their MVP this year, both offensively and through his value to the pitching staff.  Rollins, despite a decline from his MVP years , is still one of the top shortstops in the majors. Realistically, who could the Phillies acquire that would be better?  (I’d love to  get Troy Tulowittzki from the Rockies, but I just don’t see it happening.) Third base is the obvious area for improvement where  Placido Polanco’s option will not be picked up and he will not be back. However, the best available free agent, Kevin Youkilis of the Chicago White Sox, is aging, injury prone, and has had declining production over the last several years.   Trade possibilities include Chase Headley of the Padres, a good to very good player, but one who will be expensive to acquire in a seller’s market and  Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals, an intriguing offensive talent who would provide questionable defense.  The team could make due with Kevin Frandsen, who performed well over the last two months, or Freddy Galvis who has displayed a superior glove (if little offense) at two different positions.  They have a solid prospect in the minors Cody Asche, who played well at Single A Clearwater and Double A Reading, but he is not quite ready for Prime Time.

It won’t make the splash that the Phillies typically have in the offseason while Ruben Amaro has been GM, but that course of action is exactly what I would recommend. Give Frandsen and Galvis the chance to prove their worth while developing Asche in the minors and don’t overspend on marginal upgrades in talent when potentially sound, and inexpensive alternatives exist within the organization. Keep the money in reserve so a big move can be made at the trade deadline when the teams needs are more sharply in focus. Third base may not be their biggest area of need.

Andy Unable or Unwilling to adjust

I haven't been this angry about a game in years..Watching the Eagles-Cardinals game yesterday.. Vick's getting killed and apparently likes to fumble, the line is having trouble pass blocking, with two inexperienced players, and theyhave one of the best backs in the game. Seriously...run the ball!

Is Reid so tied to his game plan that he can't see what is so obvious to everyone else, even us armchair quarterbacks?  Are no other coaches on the staff able to save him from himself?  Once gain, his inability to make in-game adjustments bites Reid in his considerable posterior and the Eagles lose a game they should have won.

Major League Baseball trade Deadline Day

Trade deadline day is one of my favorite days of the year. I love the team building, the planning for the future, the balancing of current needs against the need to be competitive down the road.  Today, the Phillies, quite unlike the previous five years, have become sellers, not buyers. The real goal is to position themselves to rebound in 2013, to make 2012 a one year aberration, not the start of a downward slide. The Phillies have enough core talent to be contenders next year, but they have myriad holes.  One of their biggest issues, at least to my eyes, is complacency.  The core is used to winning, are they too comfortable and perhaps not putting forth the effort displayed in previous years? The constants, the players whose dedication is never questioned, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay, have been injured. Others, are not displaying the same drive seen in years past, Rollins, Victorino. Despite being fond links to the Phillies glorious recent past, a shakeup may be in order. (As of this writing, Victorino is almost certainly gone, traded to the Dodgers for a middle reliever). It will be fascinating to see how general manger Ruben Amaro responds, who he decides to build around, will he incorporate some of the remaining Phillies prospects,  looking to see if their youthful enthusiasm and real opportunity to win a job provide a spark, and a springboard into next year?  Further tuning will be required in the offseason, but the rest of this year will help determine whether it is a refurbishment or an extreme makeover.

Flyers are still the Broad Street Bullies

Once again, the Flyers are the Broad Street Bullies in the NHL, if not on the ice, then certainly in the offseason.  More appropriately, they are acting like the New York Yankees, buying the best available players by structuring offers in such a manner that smaller market teams cannot match them. Unlike the Yankees, this strategy has yet to pay dividends in the form of a Stanley Cup championship (the drought is 37 years and counting). The offer in question is to arguably the best all-around defenseman in the NHL, Shea Weber, the small market team that will be hard-pressed to match is the Nashville Predators, who have already lost premier defenseman Ryan Suter(on whom the Flyers also bid) to the Minnesota Wild.  As a Flyers fan, I’m always impressed by the Flyers constantly swinging for the fences, going all-out to win the ultimate hockey prize, the Stanley Cup.  But, I can’t help but feel that pilfering the small market teams , teams in regions where hockey is trying to get established, build a fan base, is not good business for the NHL as a whole.  On the other hand, baseball’s small market teams have proven that a well run organization in a small market (the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins,  and this year even the Pittsburgh Pirates),  can still be relevant. So my feelings are mixed, I’d love to have Weber in orange and black, love the fact that the Flyers are always trying to win it all, but, as a fan of the sport as a whole, I’d like to see the smaller market teams throughout the league have a chance, give their fans a thrill rather than the constant feeling of hopelessness (a thrill the league-owned Phoenix Coyotes gave their fans this year in making the Western conference Finals before losing to the eventual champion L.A. Kings) that must result when your star players are always pilfered by the leagues “Bullies”.

Could Lee’s first win be the sign the Phillies season is turning?

I know, it’s just one game, but yesterday’s 9-2 win over the Mets, a victory credited to Cliff Lee, his first in 13 starts this season, had plenty of hopeful signs.  The first was Chase Utley , displaying his vaunted drive to win by putting the team on his shoulders and hitting the tying home run.  Carlos Ruiz continued his season long brilliance by putting the Phillies in the lead, hitting his second back to back home run combo with Utley , who has been back in the lineup less than a week.  Cliff Lee, who had pitched competently in this game through six innings, then took it to another level, as Mets catcher Mike Nickeas said "Once they took the lead, we saw a different side of him," .  The Phillies kept pouring it on, scoring three runs in each of the last three innings, a killer instinct that had been missing much of the season. My favorite example was slow-footed Ty Wigginton hustling home from second on Hunter Pence's single off shortstop Ruben Tejada's glove in the eighth, the kind of aggressive baserunning that can force the other team into errors.   Hopefully, this is the start of a return to the type of baseball we’ve been privileged to see in Philadelphia over the last few seasons, and the impending return of Howard and Halladay from the disabled list can only help if this season is to be resurrected. The Phillies must start now, to paraphrase the great Yogi Berra, “it’s gotten late early around here”.