Major League Baseball trade Deadline Day

Trade deadline day is one of my favorite days of the year. I love the team building, the planning for the future, the balancing of current needs against the need to be competitive down the road.  Today, the Phillies, quite unlike the previous five years, have become sellers, not buyers. The real goal is to position themselves to rebound in 2013, to make 2012 a one year aberration, not the start of a downward slide. The Phillies have enough core talent to be contenders next year, but they have myriad holes.  One of their biggest issues, at least to my eyes, is complacency.  The core is used to winning, are they too comfortable and perhaps not putting forth the effort displayed in previous years? The constants, the players whose dedication is never questioned, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay, have been injured. Others, are not displaying the same drive seen in years past, Rollins, Victorino. Despite being fond links to the Phillies glorious recent past, a shakeup may be in order. (As of this writing, Victorino is almost certainly gone, traded to the Dodgers for a middle reliever). It will be fascinating to see how general manger Ruben Amaro responds, who he decides to build around, will he incorporate some of the remaining Phillies prospects,  looking to see if their youthful enthusiasm and real opportunity to win a job provide a spark, and a springboard into next year?  Further tuning will be required in the offseason, but the rest of this year will help determine whether it is a refurbishment or an extreme makeover.

Flyers are still the Broad Street Bullies

Once again, the Flyers are the Broad Street Bullies in the NHL, if not on the ice, then certainly in the offseason.  More appropriately, they are acting like the New York Yankees, buying the best available players by structuring offers in such a manner that smaller market teams cannot match them. Unlike the Yankees, this strategy has yet to pay dividends in the form of a Stanley Cup championship (the drought is 37 years and counting). The offer in question is to arguably the best all-around defenseman in the NHL, Shea Weber, the small market team that will be hard-pressed to match is the Nashville Predators, who have already lost premier defenseman Ryan Suter(on whom the Flyers also bid) to the Minnesota Wild.  As a Flyers fan, I’m always impressed by the Flyers constantly swinging for the fences, going all-out to win the ultimate hockey prize, the Stanley Cup.  But, I can’t help but feel that pilfering the small market teams , teams in regions where hockey is trying to get established, build a fan base, is not good business for the NHL as a whole.  On the other hand, baseball’s small market teams have proven that a well run organization in a small market (the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins,  and this year even the Pittsburgh Pirates),  can still be relevant. So my feelings are mixed, I’d love to have Weber in orange and black, love the fact that the Flyers are always trying to win it all, but, as a fan of the sport as a whole, I’d like to see the smaller market teams throughout the league have a chance, give their fans a thrill rather than the constant feeling of hopelessness (a thrill the league-owned Phoenix Coyotes gave their fans this year in making the Western conference Finals before losing to the eventual champion L.A. Kings) that must result when your star players are always pilfered by the leagues “Bullies”.

Could Lee’s first win be the sign the Phillies season is turning?

I know, it’s just one game, but yesterday’s 9-2 win over the Mets, a victory credited to Cliff Lee, his first in 13 starts this season, had plenty of hopeful signs.  The first was Chase Utley , displaying his vaunted drive to win by putting the team on his shoulders and hitting the tying home run.  Carlos Ruiz continued his season long brilliance by putting the Phillies in the lead, hitting his second back to back home run combo with Utley , who has been back in the lineup less than a week.  Cliff Lee, who had pitched competently in this game through six innings, then took it to another level, as Mets catcher Mike Nickeas said "Once they took the lead, we saw a different side of him," .  The Phillies kept pouring it on, scoring three runs in each of the last three innings, a killer instinct that had been missing much of the season. My favorite example was slow-footed Ty Wigginton hustling home from second on Hunter Pence's single off shortstop Ruben Tejada's glove in the eighth, the kind of aggressive baserunning that can force the other team into errors.   Hopefully, this is the start of a return to the type of baseball we’ve been privileged to see in Philadelphia over the last few seasons, and the impending return of Howard and Halladay from the disabled list can only help if this season is to be resurrected. The Phillies must start now, to paraphrase the great Yogi Berra, “it’s gotten late early around here”.

Should the Phillies be buyers or sellers?

The MLB trading deadline is less than one month away. Should the Phillies be looking to add talent (and payroll) to keep their 5 year playoff streak going, or should they write this year off as a lost cause and trade talent with an eye toward building for the future?  It’s not an easy question, and as usual, is predicated on your ability to predict future performance, an inexact science at best. The Phillies have been lucky in recent years as deadline acquisitions Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter pence have contributed mightily to their success.  The Phillies have been buyers, dealing prospects for help at the major league level.   If they reverse the trend, selling major league talent to rebuild their depleted minor leagues, they will essentially be giving up on this year in the hopes of starting a new run in the years to come. They could trade impending free agents Shane Victorino,  Juan Pierre, even Cole Hamels for prospects, (although as rental players they won’t bring in the haul they normally would), or perhaps Hunter pence, who will not be a free agent, in the hopes of bringing a larger return. 

Many people think this is precisely what they will do.  However,  a trade deadline selloff is not what Roy Halladay and Cliff lee signed here for, nor will it hlp entice future free agents. Additionally, prospects are iffy at best.  Of all the minor league players the Phillies traded to acquire the players identified above, only one,  Cleveland backup catcher Lou Marson, is currently in the majors.  To be sure, others are still considered good prospects (Travis D’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton), but others stock has fallen considerably (Jason Donald, Michael Taylor), so you never know.  Finally, the Phillies are expected to make three additions before the deadline that will be better than anyone any other team will be able to acquire, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy Halladay all should return, and if healthy, these stars should push them into playoff contention.  It’s not yet time to sell, the Phillies window remains open, and perhaps with some acquisitions to help the bullpen, they can return to the top of the division they have owned for the last 5 years.

The Time is right, for Price

Twin Valley baseball player Jared Price must be sitting on pins and needles.  Tonight is the first round of the amateur baseball draft, and Price, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to go anywhere between the late first round and the 10^th round.  Already having accepted a full scholarship to the University of Maryland, Price is in the catbird seat. If he is not drafted in a round he likes, or by a team he favors, or if he is not offered a large enough signing bonus, he can merely head of to Maryland, receive high level college coaching, compete in the ultra-competitive ACC, and get drafted again, hopefully at a higher level than this year. Alternately, if he is drafted and offered a big enough bonus (something in excess of $1 million) he can accept the money, forgo college, and begin pursuing his lifelong dream of playing in the major leagues.  Jared has achieved this enviable position through hard work and dogged determination to achieve his goal. However it turns out, Jared has earned his opportunity, and we in raider nation wish him the best of luck.

Mayberry R.F.P. (Request for Playing Time)

The Phillies offense has struggled mightily so far this year, despite the veritable explosion of runs (20 in the last three games of the season long 10 game road trip). When the Phillies do hit, singles are the norm, with very few extra base hits.  Of the current starters, Hunter Pence I really the only true power threat (Rollins and Victorino have occasional pop, and Laynce Nix can hit right-handers).  John Mayberry has certainly struggled with the rest of them, looking absolutely lost at the plate, while his replacement in left, Juan Pierre has consistently gotten on base, leaving Mayberry glued to the bench.  While Pierre has been on base (.339 BA, .361 On-base %), no one has driven him in with any consistency. (he’s only crossed the plate 6 times), and his arm in left is so week I think I could take second on him.  Mayberry has huge power potential, last year he slugged 15 home runs in only 267 at bats, less than half a full season’s worth, he is a plus defender at all three outfield positions (and first base as well), and can run. He was not the only player on the Phillies who struggled at the plate,  Placido Polanco had a similar terrible start, but was allowed to play through it and has started to come around. Mayberry deserves a similar chance, and more importantly, the Phillies themselves need to give him a similar chance. They need at least one more player in the lineup with 30+ homer potential, someone to drive in all the singles hitters that pepper their lineup, and someone who can provide defensive support to their stellar pitching staff.  Mayberry need a real chance to pull it together, the Phillies season may just ride on his ability to do so.

Time to Panic? Not Yet

After 8 games, the Phillies offense has been struggling to score runs, to say the least! Are the injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley too much to overcome? Will the offense continue to scuffle? The replacement in the lineup haven't done much, though slick fielding second baseman Freddy Galvis has started to hit a little after beginning his big league career with an 0-12 collar. Still, his production is nothing like Utley in his prime, nor even th Utley of last year, nor can we expect it to ever approach the Hall of Fame type numbers Chase produced before injuries derailed his election to those hallowed halls. Expecting Chase to return and be Chase is likely a pipe dream as well. Howard, on the other hand, should come back and be a reasonable facsimile of the run producing machine he always has been, if not this year, then certainly by next year. The combination of his temporary replacements, Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix, Jim Thome, and John Mayberry Junior should be able to approach the 31 homeruns and 109 RBI's Howard produced last year. If Mayberry can begin to harness the talent his physical gifts imply (He began to show signs of this last year), he might be able to give them production similar to what Jayson Werth produced while here in Philly, production that netted him a $126 million free agent contract from the Washington Nationals.

The Phillies pitching continues to be excellent, the offense should improve to a level that will allow the Phillies to generate enough runs to support that pitching, and the team still has the pedigree the win the NL East. The low run totals are likely just a function of slow starts and offensive funks that afflict every baseball team throughout the season. That's why they play 162, giving plenty of team for the cream to rise to the top.